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COMING OIL SHOCKS TO OUR ECONOMY But our lives are about to change by the economic disruption caused by our dependence on oil. The global supply of oil is “peaking” and henceforth may well diminish every year. At the same time demand is out-running supply because of the modernization of China India and growth everywhere. Just to keep even with today's supply, experts predict we need to find 6,000 wells per year each producing 1000 barrels per day. CAN YOUR BUSINESS SURVIVE $6 PER GALLON GAS? The International Energy Agency says, ''The world has never faced a problem like this. The problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. It will become a huge disruption to the economy and requires massive mitigation more than a decade before new technologies can have impact”. Hurricane Katrina was the wake up call and every city needs to have a plan for the economic shock that will result from Oil Peaking. If we go back to sleep and business proceeds as usual, we may wake up into a new economic condition for which we are not prepared as the price of gas inevitably goes higher. We may see gas gouging, rationing and driving restrictions within the coming decade that cause economic disruption greater than that seen during the 1930’s depression. The experts state that it will happen, although no one knows when. But if we cannot predict when, we can certainly prepare.
POWER THE ECONOMY The $13 trillion American economy relies on a worn and under maintained transportation infrastructure that is approaching gridlock. It needs a new way of growing to meet the future demand of increasing population. Each AGT dollar is expected to generate $5 or more in development projects at stations. Transportation investment has historically generated multiplier investment in adjacent real estate property. With our existing transportation systems all over-loaded, an elevated transportation network is needed for continued growth. Automated Guideway Transport (AGT) offers the triple potential to unclog existing systems, earn profits and generate new growth of pedestrian villages around stations. Real estate investment multipliers range from four to ten times transit investment. Therefore each $1 billion invested in AGT will generate $5 billion in pedestrian villages along that route. At each station, an 850' walking radius contains over 2 million square feet of land area. (Graphic) Zoning regulations allowing 5 to 1 densities would grow small mixed use pedestrian villages that attract a driverless population. Mixed use development around many stations could grow into the hundreds of billions of dollars in new tax base. For each AGT route, thousands of development jobs will be created in both transport and real estate. These could grow into millions of jobs as the routes densify and interconnect and offer more coverage through out the states. Check out this New Mexico illustration of tax based financing.
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PRIVATIZATION IS THE ENGINE Profits are the fuel. Now transit itself can make a profit. Our studies
show that small, lightweight AGT systems can yield (before
tax) returns of 7% to 15%, well in excess of those generated by
government owned systems. The
ridership and fares needed to achieve these results are both reasonable
and achievable. Over time, increasing ridership and the corresponding revenue will grow
more profitable on any fixed cost installation. Using Colorado as a background
to illustrate,
we have built our privatization business case online and invite you to inspect it
at in the Routes link. We are working on a demonstration model franchises in Colorado that we believe could prove the
feasibility for profitable operations of a 24 x 7 AGT infrastructure in a
variety of route sizes. (See Routes Button
on homepage)
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WHAT WILL A TRILLION DOLLAR MARKET BUY? AGT will cost, on average, about $12 to 15 million per mile, funding about 50,000 miles over 20 years - about the size of the interstate highway system. If it earns more than other public investments, there is plenty of private money to fuel a trillion dollar AGT Industry, For example, the Internet showed how quickly a trillion in capital formation can occur for national infrastructure. The Internet attracted over $2 trillion in capital in less than ten years. Today there is over $2.5 trillion in money markets saving accounts earning less than 3% and waiting for better investment climate. The stock market has $8.5 trillion. The Iraqi war is said to cost over $1 Trillion so far. There is $7.6 trillion in home equities in America and in 2003 alone $2.5 trillion was refinanced. There is more than enough money for AGT to grow a trillion market and generate new real estate investments in our cities. Over the next ten years, America's GNP is expected to exceed $150 trillion cumulatively and yet is dependant on an aging and overloaded transportation network. AGT can do even more to power the economy by stimulating huge multiplier investments in the real estate around the stations. Land use historically follows transportation technology from rivers, to roads, to rails, to highways, then airports and next to AGT.
We are proposing that AGT is capable of attracting capital for any route that can offer a 10% long term return. Transportation, being America's forth largest industry and accounting for 11% of the Gross National Product ( now exceeding $13 trillion) is primed for automation and possesses conditions that are ripe for explosive growth. AGT INDUSTRY FORMATION FACTORS
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Emergence
of new companies collectively interfacing
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MULTIPLE PUBLIC BENEFITS
- Replace percentage of automobile
demand |
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MULTIPLE DEVELOPMENT CONSORTIA This infrastructure can set the conditions for thousands of companies to grow new profits by incorporating new innovative automation, information and robotic technologies in tomorrow's economy of innovation. In every state, various industries will be required to organize, fund, build and operate a variety of AGT transport routes and technologies. Below is a list of the main industries that would be stimulated by tens thousands of jobs to build a countrywide AGT network:
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YOU CAN ALSO PARTICIPATE
The SmartSkyways Team Lloyd Goff |
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